Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.011515 0.013015 0.014638 0.016524 0.018657 0.020995 0.023753
2025-11-09 0.008895 0.010906 0.013264 0.016236 0.019884 0.024220 0.029775
2025-11-16 0.007635 0.009896 0.012698 0.016430 0.021277 0.027371 0.035631
2025-11-23 0.006617 0.008976 0.012033 0.016294 0.022090 0.029718 0.040553
2025-11-30 0.006026 0.008502 0.011841 0.016682 0.023536 0.032926 0.046815
2025-12-07 0.005265 0.007694 0.011084 0.016175 0.023647 0.034253 0.050523
2025-12-14 0.004713 0.007110 0.010565 0.015921 0.024046 0.035959 0.054853
2025-12-21 0.004193 0.006515 0.009962 0.015465 0.024069 0.037071 0.058338
2025-12-28 0.003991 0.006377 0.010017 0.015995 0.025613 0.040568 0.065757
2026-01-04 0.003761 0.006168 0.009939 0.016296 0.026805 0.043591 0.072653
2026-01-11 0.003573 0.006008 0.009916 0.016674 0.028134 0.046915 0.080297
2026-01-18 0.003308 0.005694 0.009616 0.016559 0.028623 0.048879 0.085790
2026-01-25 0.003083 0.005433 0.009388 0.016557 0.029324 0.051288 0.092326
2026-02-01 0.002828 0.005100 0.009009 0.016261 0.029486 0.052780 0.097376
2026-02-08 0.002679 0.004939 0.008915 0.016457 0.030529 0.055892 0.105609
2026-02-15 0.002494 0.004696 0.008653 0.016320 0.030946 0.057892 0.111922
2026-02-22 0.002400 0.004614 0.008674 0.016708 0.032368 0.061847 0.122284
2026-03-01 0.002195 0.004303 0.008244 0.016201 0.032028 0.062436 0.126107
2026-03-08 0.002041 0.004077 0.007959 0.015947 0.032156 0.063923 0.131820
2026-03-15 0.001877 0.003818 0.007587 0.015490 0.031837 0.064496 0.135700
2026-03-22 0.001837 0.003806 0.007701 0.016021 0.033566 0.069301 0.148784
2026-03-29 0.001774 0.003742 0.007704 0.016323 0.034840 0.073269 0.160415
2026-04-05 0.001723 0.003698 0.007743 0.016701 0.036302 0.077732 0.173489